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(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
Hit up Costco and Bed Bath and Beyond tonight. It turns out that we did have enough time to hit up both. https://t.co/47rO46si0Q — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
@BarryCaro @RaginCajunKate @KFILE Look it was important info and Andrew, I and others got it out there. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
On a day like today... https://t.co/ItweVaTOhq — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
I spent my morning writing 1k+ words on the 2020 race for the Senate... — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
@Neil_Paine @NateSilver538 Was it Neil? Maybe it was Galen?!??! — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
Folks, I have sad news to report. @natesilver538 seems to have turned into a Yankee fan. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
@NateSilver538 @davidcho @galendruke @ClareMalone This is the point where I say "i'd like pasta please." — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
It is the case that 1. People want to see the Mueller report. 2. It will probably not move the needle at all electorally... — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
Just important to keep in mind that Buttigieg is polling mostly in the high single digits for now... An amazing rise to be sure, but actually mostly tied with Harris/O'Rourke/Warren... — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
You can see from here that Fox News (who in its primetime isn't in love with the Dems) is mostly ignoring Buttigieg, which is very much unlike Sanders who has been getting a plurality of his coverage from Fox for a while now. https://t.co/JSHa7Sd9Aj — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
Buttigieg's rise is really interesting. It was most certainly organic as I wrote (i.e. Google searches went up long before tv mentions) https://t.co/JU5Jwk7Qrv but it also seems that once some in the media fell for Buttigieg they fell hard. (1/2) — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
https://t.co/2Cs1xY6Rx5 — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
The Ricki Lake Show had a good theme song... — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
For reference, GA-6's Jewish population ranks 26th out of 435 congressional districts, according to a 2014 study. 8.4% of the population is Jewish. (My cousin Sandy lives there...) — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
Buttigieg is clearly climbing in the polls, but I think his core support of well-to-do white liberals is a group that may cause the media to overestimate his support. Why? The people who surround national media reporters are right in Buttigieg's wheelhouse https://t.co/7hkovLAF5N — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
This is certainly one definition of a frontrunner. — PolitiTweet.org
David M. Drucker @DavidMDrucker
Bernie isn't just frontrunner because of polls. He's frontrunner because he's controlling the debate. And until a c… https://t.co/9TCvycH7sh
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
@ElectProject To be clear, all I'm really saying here is Obama had a net positive approval rating in pre-election polls, the exit polls, etc. And then he won. That's all. The article itself argues that prez elections, even with incumbents, are actually choice elections. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
@ElectProject Yea, but Obama also had a net positive approval rating... which is what I'm getting at here. That is, he would have won a referendum election. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
Yes, i still do wonder whether Trump can ever get that approval up. But I really do think the larger question at this point is who the Dems nominate and can Trump/GOP paint said candidate as extremist/unlikable as they did with Clinton. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
Another more modern example is what happened in Nevada in 2010: Obama net negative approve. Harry Reid net neg approval. What did Reid do? Got the gift of Sharron Angle & made her even more disliked. Won reelection by 6. https://t.co/AmHEoiMkgR — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
Two examples come to mind where approval ratings didn't tell the whole story. One is presidential: 1976, when Ford (after Watergate) clearly had a net positive approval rating. Still lost to the better liked Ford. https://t.co/AmHEoiMkgR — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
Now can it work? I think it could. It seems to me most scholarship surrounding reelection uses approval ratings. Turns out difference in favorable ratings between 2 major candidates (not endogenous from approval ratings) is more predictive https://t.co/AmHEoiMkgR — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
One [obvious] reason "Why Trump attacks: He knows he can't win a referendum election in 2020"... Idea being here that the prez has had a negative net approval rating for over two years. If he can't drag down the Dems, he probably can't win. https://t.co/AmHEoiMkgR — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
For some reason, I'm watching a pre-game show to the 2000 Iowa Caucuses. (Election night videos aren't enough for me anymore.) Dem Bob Kerrey, who was supporting Bill Bradley, stopped by a Bush rally. Kerrey wished Bush luck & the two shared kind words... Seems like a world away. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
@EsotericCD Let's count... All 6 in NE, NY, NJ, PA, MD, VA... So that's 11... OH, IL, MN, IA... 15... GA, AL, FL, TX... 19... CO, UT, NV... 22... CA, ID... 24... I think that's it? DC as well... — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
@LoganDobson If I didn't know who this was, I'd say this is what a robotic O'Rourke supporter would say. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
That moment @SteveKornacki and I have the same idea... https://t.co/9OrL5xArdd — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
I believe Biden has led Sanders by at least 8 in every national poll done over the last month, except for two... Both of those were by Emerson which showed a tie and Sanders +5. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
Me to @Neil_Paine & @VinDanton pretty much every day https://t.co/dFY811Ohju — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
@NateSilver538 Sorta reminds me how people are like "oooooo, money"... When Sanders is pulling the same % of dough as he is in the polls... ( — PolitiTweet.org
