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(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
Correct. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
H https://t.co/iaKnEAbnz1
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
One of the great scenes in Seinfeld history https://t.co/0Erp0rduzO — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
@aedwardslevy TBH, my takeaway from that headline was not what they intended. It was like "we found the way that Trump can win with a 42% approval rating." — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
This poll has a neat question that illustrates why I am skeptical of the idea that you can add up folks to find a sort of anti-Biden bloc. https://t.co/Xtq9sJXvxB https://t.co/JWITRJcMB0 — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
@Nate_Cohn We're listening... Well I am. Go on. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
@PollsAndVotes I thought your logits the other day were pretty convincing. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
In poll results that you won't see the President tweeting out, Rasmussen has Warren beating him by 2. https://t.co/2bXK5cTjGx — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
However, we do know for example that primary polling at this point (which is only measuring currently preferences) has historically been correlated with the eventual result. It's rather silly in my mind not to acknowledge that. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
Can I explain why I'm not enamored with this piece? It's because it suggests a mode of thinking I think is improper: binary. Yes or no. We obviously don't know with 100% certainly what will happen or anything close. So in that sense we "don't know". (1/2) https://t.co/UxeRKVnTOp — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
@kyletblaine Hi Kyle. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
Weird day. How you doing? — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
He's busy ignoring my slacks. — PolitiTweet.org
David Wright @DavidWright_CNN
.@kyletblaine is unconcerned https://t.co/3tddK02paJ
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
My bottom line... based on the data available at this point... I have no reason to really think the early states as a whole appreciably differ from the national polling. Could that change? Of course. Maybe it's changing right now. I just don't think we can reasonably claim it is — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
2. To the point of a small sample size, Morning Consult has been tracking IA/NH/NV/SC... They actually have Biden stronger in the early states than nationally. https://t.co/iulj4FMvrf — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
Got thoughts on early state crosstab: 1. We have actually polling from the early states, not a crosstab (that I'm glad is available) off a 334 voter sample with I'd guess a big MOE. Biden is about as strong in IA as nationally. Weaker in NH. Stronger in SC https://t.co/kP3donwKEj — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
Warren has got of a bit of a Buttigieg thing going on here. Her support is concentrated in the college-educated and very liberal groups. (Also among whites in this poll.) Perfect recipe for media potentially overestimating her support. https://t.co/aEWhfQN9nf — PolitiTweet.org
Steve Kornacki @SteveKornacki
Also Warren's strength coming heavily from one side of the college/non-college divide: No college degree Biden 35%… https://t.co/zsp0BZ6TPb
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
Monmouth has Biden 33%, Sanders 15%, Harris 11%, Warren 10%. https://t.co/kP3donwKEj I think there are some trends attached... Biden is up pre-launch, but down from immediate post launch. Warren is up but not much in last few weeks. Sanders has stabilized for now. Harris steady. https://t.co/flC9Hn8MWU — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
https://t.co/4tBKxiJmqk https://t.co/qXy4LKmEdh — PolitiTweet.org
Brian Brettschneider @Climatologist49
31 days until we start losing daylight. #DailyInspiration
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
@MonmouthPoll One time Patrick should throw his face in there just to mix it up. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
DST still stinks. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
@stevesingiser If Dems can't win KY this year... — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
@EsotericCD Whatever floats your boat, buddy :). — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
I screw up plenty, but sometimes... https://t.co/Zp95nl4bZW — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
@Redistrict LOL. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
Early days yet, but the strong opposition to Trump's re-elect remains historically high. https://t.co/J7mEhGQjZ6 — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
Big Ben Carson fans. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
So I was having a conversation with a few folks, and I think Mark gets the biggest problem in Australia right here. The average was fine (as I emphasized on Monday). The issue was seeming herding. https://t.co/m2UVVC4Btq — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
@ChrisStirewalt @SeanTrende @justkarl I have not and now I wanna. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
@ChrisStirewalt @SeanTrende @justkarl Baaaaaaaaaaaad. Also, I'm watching sheep and goat videos. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
Unless Sanders rallies over the next month, he's gonna poll on average less than 20% nationally over the first course of the year. The primary record of those who poll that low and have high name id ain't good. — PolitiTweet.org