(((Harry Enten)))

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

@Taniel Gotta admit I didn't know we charged folks for calls so recently... — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

The end point here by Brendan is the ultimate unknown. How popular is that Dem candidate? While we get hung up on prez approval, history suggests opponent popularity matters too even w/ an incumbent running. https://t.co/UTUt1V6TZv https://t.co/AmHEoiMkgR — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

Kinda freaky (though not all that surprising if u think the primaries have been nationalized) how the Q-Pac Dem primary white voter preferences crosstab lines up ridiculously well with the Selzer Iowa poll from Iowa (a very white state). — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

Bush for instance polled at 1% (!!!!) in Aug 1979 and won the caucuses. I'd take a flier for sure that one of the 1% or 2% candidates at least becomes competitive. Who that is? IDK. But history says don't lose sight of that group. — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

The rest category is fascinating to me. You got a SLEW of candidates at 1% or 2% right now. There are a number of examples of those polling at 5% or less going on to win (e.g. Huckabee, Santorum, Bush 80). And more who came in second (Hart, Edwards). — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

Still w/ some simple (& I mean simple) modeling we can roughly sketch it out: 1. Biden's quite vulnerable (30%? chance of winning IA). 2. Buttigieg/Sanders/Warren 15%? each (i.e. combined greater than Biden). 3. Harris maybe 5%-10%. 4. The rest... (2/?) https://t.co/snvPdmLJvX — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

Examined Iowa caucus polling at this point since 80. It's a rough analysis, but what stood out to me is how many people came from less than 5% to win IA. How few won IA when polling between 10%-30% (where frontrunners are right now). (1/?) https://t.co/snvPdmLJvX — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

The revealing thing about the public horserace numbers aren't what they mean for Nov. 2020 per se. It's that Trump's not outperforrming his approval/fav ratings against his most likely opponent. Doing so was how he won in 2016. — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

@ClareMalone I like it. — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

@nataliemjb I'm well aware of the cost structure... as I said, "I totally get why" pollsters do this. But it just doesn't get anywhere near the full story... which is why I combined samples etc. Nothing is perfect. — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

@nataliemjb I was able to get a ~120ish sample by combining our April/May polls. — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

I totally get why pollsters have a white vs non-white tab, but in a primary in which Hispanic and black voters feel differently... It really misses nuance. — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

I also think there is pretty good evidence that the current Trump numbers DO take into account the state of the economy. I'd argue his ratings would be worse if not for what voters see as a strong economy. https://t.co/6BaFZPsXT8 — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

IDK what the next 1.5 years will hold. (I have guesses.) What is clear to me is that Trump would very likely lose an election held today. https://t.co/0cGKQeMnCv — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

@LoganDobson Sounds delicious. — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

Biden 30, Sanders 19, Warren 15, Buttigieg 8, Harris 7, O'Rourke 3 per Q-Pac... Trendline attached... Biden/Sanders are now back to March Q-Pac numbers. Warren holding her gains. https://t.co/zGRvFB4dTh — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

@micahcohen "a contemptible, socially inept person." per Google. Yep. — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

@micahcohen When a spade calls another a "spade", it's not an effort to relieve themselves of said title. — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

@TexasTribAbby I've seen Grease 2 more often than Grease. — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

@micahcohen Nerd. — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

@evansiegfried he's at 0%... lol. — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

I hope to have more on this soon, but based solely on past history of Iowa polling... I would think one of the 1%-2% club will climb of the cellar to be competitive on down the road... Who that is? IDK. — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

@FiveThirtyEight HI NEIL!!!!!!! — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

@FiveThirtyEight I'll be watching!!!! — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

If you divide support by name id in Iowa poll, you get... Biden: 25, Buttigieg: 19, Sanders: 17, Warren: 17... Raw score: Biden 24, Sanders 16, Warren 15, Buttigieg 14... Put another way, Buttigieg is doing really well for his name rec... — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

The "Warren is moving up" thought is on much safer ground looking at favorable ratings than horserace. She's moved maybe 2 or 3 pts nationally (?) and really back to where once was. (Right now we really have only 1 v. good Iowa poll.) The favs have CLEARLY improved. — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

When you want to retweet it, but you know you can't. — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

https://t.co/ZRCo8Z1PWx https://t.co/JbsCST3mHd https://t.co/jcHFkCG0wQ — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

@PatrickRuffini Wouldn't the fundamentals also suggest that a prez with good job growth and no foreign wars have an approval rating above ~43%?... I ask myself this. — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

Lots of takeaways from me on our Iowa poll, but my number one: Iowa Democrats have predesignated 10% of delegates to virtual caucuses... but per our poll 28% of caucusgoers say they'll vote this way... This could get messy imho. https://t.co/g0T1EcmXx4 — PolitiTweet.org