(((Harry Enten)))

@ForecasterEnten ↗

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Last Checked Oct. 17, 2020

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Wed Jun 12 13:47:47 +0000 2019

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(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

Examined Iowa caucus polling at this point since 80. It's a rough analysis, but what stood out to me is how many people came from less than 5% to win IA. How few won IA when polling between 10%-30% (where frontrunners are right now). (1/?) https://t.co/snvPdmLJvX — PolitiTweet.org

Posted June 12, 2019 Hibernated

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(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

The revealing thing about the public horserace numbers aren't what they mean for Nov. 2020 per se. It's that Trump's not outperforrming his approval/fav ratings against his most likely opponent. Doing so was how he won in 2016. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted June 12, 2019 Hibernated

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(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

Still w/ some simple (& I mean simple) modeling we can roughly sketch it out: 1. Biden's quite vulnerable (30%? chance of winning IA). 2. Buttigieg/Sanders/Warren 15%? each (i.e. combined greater than Biden). 3. Harris maybe 5%-10%. 4. The rest... (2/?) https://t.co/snvPdmLJvX — PolitiTweet.org

Posted June 12, 2019 Hibernated