(((Harry Enten)))

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

Biden crushing it in Mississippi thanks to huge support from black voters. This poll was conducted late last week... https://t.co/soWnY22ldP — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

Meghan was one of the best editors I had. And one of the kindest people I know. — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

This sounds delicious. — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

@Nate_Cohn But I was told... Eh nvm. — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

@NateSilver538 Also notable that Biden does well with those paying closest attention. — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

@SteveKornacki FWIW, my data from CNN's last two polls (on smaller sample sizes) shows something very similar... — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

MoveOn's straw poll result... Warren at 38% more than doubling Sanders (17%) and waaaaaay up from December... Biden coming up with 15%, which is typical for him. Overwhelmingly win the groups that favor him and don't collapse in more hostile territory. https://t.co/qw1EpILJgm — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

These are really good endorsements for Harris. — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

@NateSilver538 Took 2 reads, but very good. — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

Morning Consult finds that Biden's standing remains... unchanged this week compared to last nationally. (FWIW, Warren up 2 points to 13%. I believe her best showing in an MC poll.) https://t.co/8sKoe1ijGI https://t.co/OAG5H8K4sl — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

RT @DataDhrumil: Last week, Cory Booker got a bump in media attention. But 44 percent of the cable news clips mentioning Booker also mentio… — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

I would think (?) it'd be much harder to change voter opinions about someone voters know than someone who more than half of black voters cannot form an opinion of. — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

As Buttigieg/Biden face media scrutiny on issues revolving around race, 1 thing I think (?) should be noted is black voters "know" Biden. Over 90% of black Dem primary voters could form an opinion of Biden in April/May CNN polls combined. Just 42% said they could of Buttigieg. — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

RT @aseitzwald: @PollsterPatrick @Sulliview @NateSilver538 @AvalancheStrat The Reflective Democracy Campaign (@WhoLeadsUs) is out with new… — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

@PatrickRuffini Yep. https://t.co/NeXisLEudN — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

BTW, the stuff that Scott Rasmussen (long since left Rasmussen Reports) is doing has been far more in-line with what other pollsters have generally found... — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

And again, I think this is one big difference between a pollster you can trust and one you can't. A good one will admit when they're off. A bad one will throw a social media fit. — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

I wish Rasmussen Polling was more accurate. I just wanna point out something. Even you believe the generic ballot can't be compared to the House vote, Rasmussen's likely voter Trump net approval rating was very far off from what the exits found in 2018. https://t.co/pRZIrkZFBK — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

NYC "trading" the Dodgers and Giants for a team to be named later (Mets) is one of the worst "trades" in MLB history. — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

Hanging out with 1 Biden fan and 1 Warren fan right now... Biden fan: "I just want the madness to stop." Warren fan: "I like her passion & her plans." — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

Man, I have to clean out my fridge. — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

Folks. — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

While this same model would suggest that there is a 90% chance a very conservative 75 year-old white Democrat without a college degree would back Biden. — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

For example, although Biden gets about 50% of the black vote in this sample... Only about a 5% chance that an individual college educated very liberal black voter would back him. — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

Nerds will get this simple logit, but for everyone else: I combined our last 2 CNN polls. Biden's support is less on left/coll educ & more among blacks/older, but what's key is that it's not just 1 variable explaining others. So we should see diversity of support within any group https://t.co/bEUGh6iFV4 — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

The age split in the South Carolina YouGov poll is REALLY something else. Biden gets 32% among those under 30, 30% among those 30-44, 50% among those 45-64... and 70% (!) among those 65+. https://t.co/BvDu6Kqa1u — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

The big sign that Biden's support may not hold is that only 9% of black congressional Dems have endorsed him. Harris picked up Green/Hastings this week. — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

Clinton held only a 5 pt lead with black voters during 2007. Obama was doing significantly better with black voters than with white voters even early in the cycle. That overperformance with black voters compared to whites is only true of one candidate this cycle: Biden. — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

1 thing i note in the piece is that 08 gets brought up as a comparison (i.e. when Obama picked up a lot of black support late)... and while that could definitely happen this cycle, I think the comparison is flawed. Why? — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

Also speaking about his support from black voters. Biden holds a ~40 pt lead over his nearest competitor. Can he hold that? https://t.co/m3AGjYvkEN — PolitiTweet.org