(((Harry Enten)))

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

Let's talk about Kerry. Another "meh" candidate supposedly (see wind surfing, "Lambert Field", etc). What folks don't seem to acknowledge is it's not like Kerry lost a campaign he should have won. Bush had positive net approval & favs at end. Usually that means incumbent wins. — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

Let's talk about Gore specifically... for such a "gaffe" machine, he actually was pretty darn popular. His net favs were positive and almost always +10 pts or more positive. Bush tended to match these during 2000. Be shocked if any 2020 candidate ends up as liked as Gore. — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

But let's talk about Clinton for a second. Yes, his approval rating was ~60%. But favorable ratings were really mediocre. His net fav in the final CBS News poll of the campaign was -1 pts. There was a reason why Gore kept his distance... — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

On Gore 2000, a lot of folks say "well he lost and the economy was good... Plus Clinton had a sky high approval rating." Well the economy was good on certain metrics but certainly mixed on others such as job growth really slowing down from June-Oct 2000. — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

Some random thoughts on a Sunday evening about Al Gore & John Kerry... I think both don't get their due when it comes to their prez bids... I'm gonna start with Gore and go onto Kerry... — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

@SeanTrende You want some combo of all three i would think. Obviously IA+NH undersold Clinton last year... Giuliani is a great example of why you need IA+NH. — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

@allahpundit Yes he is. I saw the same thing. Biden, for all his gaffes, is very careful not to do this. — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

Lastly, let's talk about those under 5%. Without a complex model, the tails become harder to figure out. But I feel fairly strong about saying there is up to a 15% chance that the winner IA is NOT Biden, Warren, Harris, Sanders or Buttigieg. So def worth keep an eye out for. — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

If you applied the Monmouth poll to those, no one is a majority chance to win. Biden+Warren is a >50% shot of winning Iowa. Moreover there may be a HUGE difference between polling at 20% & 30%. You double your chances from 20% to 40% to win... (2/3) — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

Went back in history & looked at what Iowa polls at this point mean. Run a simple model & get: candidates polling/win %: 30% win 40%, poll 25% win 30% of time, 20% win 20% of time, 15% win 15% of time, 10% win 10% of time, 5% win 5% of time, 1% win 3%. https://t.co/9Z0AXmxqHk — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

I can't stand when people say Warren is surging. She's not. It's been a slow steady rise, which I believe is more sustainable. We will see... — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

Interestingly, Monmouth's poll did find Steyer doing best in the moderate lane — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

https://t.co/6bTpebUHAU — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

Having a diet coke with a touch of grenadine and topped with a bit of whipped cream. Hope ur Friday night is as good as mine :). — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

I don't have measurements on racial attitudes in 1992, but I can say Clinton won about 70% of the black vote, 55%-60% of the white non-college vote and only about 33% of the white college vote. Looks very Bidenish right now. — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

@aedwardslevy @amyewalter @jmartNYT @RichLowry I once knew a weatherman into snow who got stationed in Palm Beach. I shudder. — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

@aedwardslevy @amyewalter @jmartNYT @RichLowry YAY!!!!!!!!!! — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

Why I believe Texas could go blue in 2020. And this comes from a person who has been very skeptical of the idea in the past. https://t.co/G3w9H26eTy — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

@NathanWurtzel I mean my fellow Yankee haters and I are collecting Astros gear right now to wear, lol. — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

@NathanWurtzel I'm not sure why you aren't right now, tbh. — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

I recall when a candidate for governor (Jan Brewer) had a complete brain freeze during a debate and said nothing for 10 seconds... Then went onto win by 12(!). https://t.co/hL8KRFfywt — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

I must admit I find it semi-bizarre to see people surprised that a candidate who make verbal gaffes leads in polling. Will said lead hold? Prob not. But remember two out of a last three presidents were/are George W. Bush and Donald Trump. — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

@galendruke To be fair, I often get asked if I'm people's Grandpa Morty. (That doesn't actually happen.) — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

Well back at 9%*. Harris is at 11%. I walked away from the comp & had a day dream about this tweet. — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

This week on the Forecast Fest pod w/ @KateBolduan, @JohnAvlon, & I, we talk about state of play in the Dem race following the 2nd debates, gun polling, 2020 House (I think it's staying blue) & Texas going purple (?). All about the well-educated suburbs. https://t.co/hfM3WYRdj1 — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

@RalstonReports how about both? — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

@RalstonReports That's what I say about you when I see you on the air... — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

@nymetrowx !!!!!! — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

I'm just gonna order lunch. What are you thinking of having? — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

@NateSilver538 My computer froze... I'd say they are close to if not over 50% combined... Sure. — PolitiTweet.org