(((Harry Enten)))

@ForecasterEnten ↗

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Last Checked April 2, 2021

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Sun Aug 11 14:55:50 +0000 2019

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(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

If you applied the Monmouth poll to those, no one is a majority chance to win. Biden+Warren is a >50% shot of winning Iowa. Moreover there may be a HUGE difference between polling at 20% & 30%. You double your chances from 20% to 40% to win... (2/3) — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 11, 2019 Hibernated

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(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

Went back in history & looked at what Iowa polls at this point mean. Run a simple model & get: candidates polling/win %: 30% win 40%, poll 25% win 30% of time, 20% win 20% of time, 15% win 15% of time, 10% win 10% of time, 5% win 5% of time, 1% win 3%. https://t.co/9Z0AXmxqHk — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 11, 2019 Hibernated

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(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

Lastly, let's talk about those under 5%. Without a complex model, the tails become harder to figure out. But I feel fairly strong about saying there is up to a 15% chance that the winner IA is NOT Biden, Warren, Harris, Sanders or Buttigieg. So def worth keep an eye out for. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 11, 2019 Hibernated