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(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
Looking at some polls that asked about Trump's favorability, approval, & Biden vs. Trump... Average Trump Net Approval Among voters from YouGov/Selzer/Harris/Monmouth: -1.8 pts. Average Net Favorability from same pollsters: -6.3 pts. Trump deficit vs. Biden: -5.3 pts. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
Selzer puts out a national poll with Grinnell. Interesting nugget. Among likely voters. Trump's net approval rating is 0. His net favorability -7. Gaps like that help to explain why Biden is holding onto a lead against Trump even as Trump's approval rises. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
Yes, the primary is still happening as planned... which is... something. — PolitiTweet.org
... @Hoosier114
@ForecasterEnten man alive that's still happening?
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
New Marquette poll out tmrw from Wisconsin... Would be surprised if Trump doesn't lead given his numbers nationally. Also semi-interested in the Dem primary polling for next week... — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
Today's Video: How Long Will Trump's Bounce Last? History says it should peak within the next few weeks if it hasn't already. But lingering effects could last through the election. Note: There is a wide range of outcomes. (Also I put on a collared shirt.) https://t.co/qPxYgC5bFM https://t.co/ybkfND6N6E — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
@nymetrowx hmmmm — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
@galendruke You have now put on a nicer shirt than I have in 3.5 weeks. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
@ChrisCuomo Right now Trump's net approval is up around 5 points on average... Average of other world leaders is up double digits. Obama was up double digits after the killing of Bin Laden (even in a polarized era). Cuomo's net favorability is up 54 points in NYS... — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
Today's video: It's pretty clear now that Trump's Rally Around the Flag Effect (while certainly evident) is significantly smaller than other leaders here in the U.S., across the globe & even compared to past presidents. (Also has a fun mock of @ChrisCuomo) https://t.co/amjXJYDUWM https://t.co/4zUaYrUoh2 — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
Coronavirus has impacted NY more so than any other state... Cuomo's net favorability is up about 55 points per Siena. Trump's hasn't moved. Trump was down 19 to Biden last month. He's down 25 now. Potentially ominous sign going forward... — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
In all 3 high quality polls out this week (ABC, Fox, and Monmouth), Trump does 3+ worse in the horserace than his net approval... as there is some signs (if you look at Monmouth) that his net favorability is lower than his net approval at this point. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
Folks, this election is almost completely going to be about feelings towards Trump. If a poll has his net approval at +2, he's going to do well in the horserace. Most polls show his net approval lower than that; hence the ABC poll is among Trump's best in the horserace (1/?) — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
If there has been less movement towards Trump among voters in his approval ratings (which is pretty clear), it would follow that there would be less movement in the horserace against Biden... — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
@NathanWurtzel Truly great stuff. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
Man alive, Conan's 1993-1994 stuff is so good. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
We're talking about over 1,100 days in the Trump presidency and a long time pattern reversed itself. Interestingly, non-voters tend to be the group that pays least attention to the news... — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
Trump's rally has come disproportionately among groups who make up a larger share of the non-voting population... Young folks, Nonwhites, and those with lower education levels... — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
Let's try that gain... Today's video: For the first time in his presidency, Trump's net approval rating is a point or more higher among ADULTS than it is among voters. Trump's approval rally has happened disproportionately among non-voters. https://t.co/kOWjSgkdi7 — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
You can see in the group breakdowns... Trump's gained most among young, nonwhite, and less educated voters... All groups that are registered at lower % than others. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
Today's video: For the first time in his presidency, Trump's net approval rating is a point or more higher among voters than it is among all adults. Trump's approval rally has happened disproportionately among non-voters. https://t.co/kOWjSgkdi7 https://t.co/tZQ87P0ORS — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
This is 100% right. It's what I spoke about in my Tuesday video. https://t.co/grbIOfWzD4 https://t.co/bv1oLOPmWu — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Almost nothing about what Joe Biden is doing for the next few weeks is gonna matter much for November. And almost e… https://t.co/Cw54CGR8z5
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
On the one hand, Trump's approval rating is as high as its ever been. On the other, he's seen less of a boost than other world leaders and even less than Congress (per Fox News poll). Let's see where we are in a few weeks... — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
@amyewalter Yep nothing too similar to this... Maybe 1918? No polling from that year, though! — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
@amyewalter Perhaps the only thing I can think of similarly was perhaps Carter. In that, the crisis went on... and on... and on. No guarantee of the same outcome of course. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
I'm not sure the past week changes my priors too much there... Probably better to reassess in a few weeks... — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
We know Trump was in awful historical polling position before the pandemic hit in sense he was behind Biden by 7. (Almost all incumbents are up at this point.) Even so there was a 1/3+ shot he'd end up winning popular vote & was closer to break even in electoral college. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
Enjoyed this very much because I think the "I don't know" is the right answer. https://t.co/9fFARiOT0I But perhaps missed in all of this is we shouldn't been certain about Trump's 2020 chances without this pandemic. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
Here's a photo of me from a while ago. https://t.co/lke3h0EaPV — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
Here's something I haven't figured out... Why is Rasmussen holding steady with a negative net fav for Trump? — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
No one economic measure is perfect by any stretch, but whether folks think the economy is getting better or getting worse just prior to election day is one of the better measures out there. https://t.co/ply5ujuVla — PolitiTweet.org
