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(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
@islivingston SAY HI!!!!!!!!!! — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
@jbarro @Nate_Cohn @IChotiner I'm of course very interested in more polling!!! — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
@jbarro @Nate_Cohn @IChotiner Tldr: Biden's clearly up w/ younger voters (though it seems by a little less than Clinton)... & it seems pretty clear at least in the average he's up with older voters too... So the U or V or whatever shape seems to be real... at least for now... in national polling. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
@jbarro @Nate_Cohn @IChotiner I think on the younger end... that's more interesting. The effect is less so weighting can make a bigger difference there. I think the way I phrased it is what I wanted... I'd have expected Biden to be up more given his overall lead... That is relatively. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
@jbarro @Nate_Cohn CC @ichotiner... I wouldn't call it major... It's worth a few points in the egregious examples. On the older end, we're talking Biden outperforming Clinton by double digits including in our CNN poll, which weights on the interaction — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
@ElectProject In 1992, there was a bit of one. (Clinton's best groups were under 25 and 65+) In 04, it really began, but Kerry's best groups were under 25 and 75+. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
Further, more data is better... I've seen polls that have Biden tied with Trump among under 35... and him up 30+ in same group... More polls are better to tell us exact extent of what's going on here with age curve... — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
We might be heading towards a V or U type of age curve... Where Dems do well in old and young, while GOP does better in the middle. Seen that in 1992 and 2004 (to an extent). But just cause something is true now doesn't make true in November. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
Seems to me a. Trump is clearly underperforming w/ seniors (65+) as compared to 16 if you avg across polls. b. Biden is doing worse w/ those under 35 than you'd expect, but by less of an extent than Trump is underperforming w/ older. Seniors make up a larger share of electorate. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
I think it's time for a Designing Women marathon. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
The polling on stay at home is pretty clear... Most are agreement with the orders. In fact, it usually runs in the neighborhood of 3:1 to 4:1+ in favor... It's a huge majority. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
The big asterisk here is what happened in 2018... though I think there's at least a pretty decent argument to make that FL compared to the MI/PA/WI saw a much less pro-Dem electorate in 2018... which could resolve itself in a prez year. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
Two other pts... 1. If we believe seniors are more Dem leaning than in 16 (which polling suggests), FL would be a place you'd see it. 2. People do remember FL was less than 0.5 pts more Trump leaning in 16 than PA and WI, right? — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
Why Biden should make a big play in Florida. The polling there isn't bad for him. He's likely ahead by a few. (It's no worse than PA & especially WI.) It's worth a ton of electoral votes. You want diverse geographic/demographic paths, which FL provides. https://t.co/IyM4OmBL8E — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
@JewdyGold I used a clothes hanger. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
Terrible, but not surprising. https://t.co/lBko3yRAX2 https://t.co/Wz2PmGIWA0 — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
@databyler Letting it grow out... i'm letting my beard go too. Let's see where it all ends up!! — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
@SeanTrende I think I want pizza now. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
I do think the home state effect is real for vp's. But it's small. Presidential candidates should pick someone they like & think can do the job of prez. Those who try to make splashes often regret it. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
RT @ClareMalone: BROOKLYN followers: my coworker's relative is missing. Last seen at 1402 Atlantic Avenue in Brooklyn at 9:15pm on Wednes… — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
@micahcohen I just did a quick scan... and some of that may have occurred. The question is when are we using as the launching pt here? As in what time frame are we comparing? — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
@PatrickRuffini In fact, I say it flat out in the piece. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
@PatrickRuffini Patrick, Patrick, Patrick... I'm comparing it to that :). — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
That's the type of thing can make me really wonder about the electoral map... Maybe things won't fold together as neatly as we think it might? We'll see... — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
I'll also note this comes at a time when Biden is doing better among seniors than Clinton did... So the age gap has shrunk among seniors and young folks... (Gen X-young Boomers may actually be most GOP part of electorate right now.) — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
The question is whether this is all temporary after the primary... and the youngest voters in the electorate come clearly back into the fold... It definitely could be. But it's a good reason to think that Biden does need Sanders. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
In the final polls that included Sanders, Biden did ~8 pts worse among 18-34 year-olds in the matchups against Trump than Sanders. This despite Biden doing better overall against Trump... This follows Biden's poor performance with them in the primary. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
Biden may have a young voter (18-34 year-old) problem. In last 5 live probability polls, he leads Trump by 14 pts. Clinton won them by 22 (or 24). Remember, Biden leads nationally by 6 (Clinton won by 2), so he's underperforming as he does better overall. https://t.co/ryZY6HJT5L — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
I'll have a little more on this tmrw in some fashion, but the age curve of support that has defined our last few elections seems to be on somewhat shaky ground looking at the polling. I do wonder what that may mean in the electoral college for one thing... — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
@SeanTrende Oh G8d. — PolitiTweet.org
