Nassim Nicholas Taleb

@nntaleb ↗

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Last Checked May 14, 2022

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Wed Apr 27 22:11:15 +0000 2022

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Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb

@Value_Quant How about using 1 year ago? — PolitiTweet.org

Posted April 27, 2022

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Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb

NOT SO FAST The implied probability of Twitter being bought by *someone* is ~50%. The implied probability of Twitter being bought by Musk is <50%. Very rough calc: TWTR is ~10% > than Nasdaq over 12 months (before accumulation), and abt >10% lower than Musk's acquisition price. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted April 27, 2022

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Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb

2) But if you use TWTR's relative price from January, implied odds of nobody buying it ~25%, Musk <25%. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted April 28, 2022