Nassim Nicholas Taleb

@nntaleb ↗

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Last Checked March 14, 2021

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Wed Jul 01 17:09:04 +0000 2020

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Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb

ANSWER (FRAMEWORK): We can use this very simple approach for conditional probability: if those who tested have more positives in them. So much less than 1%, with some information we can get closer. https://t.co/RpeV3a7LYc — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 1, 2020 Hibernated

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Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb

QUESTION If ~1% of people tested in NY test positive, assuming nonrandom testing, what is the proportion of people infected? — PolitiTweet.org

Today's update on the numbers: 56,710 tests were performed yesterday. 625 tests came back positive (1.1% of total)… https://t.co/ev1OeyLkxI

Posted July 1, 2020 Hibernated

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Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb

(Ignoring the false positives/false negatives as too small an effect here) — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 1, 2020 Hibernated