Nassim Nicholas Taleb

@nntaleb ↗

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Last Checked Sept. 6, 2020

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Thu Apr 23 16:26:32 +0000 2020

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Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb

Emanuel Derman (who knows something about probability) exposing the dangerous BS by Phil the Rat 🐀 @PTetlock --whose knowledge of probability is way too primitive. — PolitiTweet.org

@PTetlock @tylercowen Is it really ‘manipulation’ to ‘overestimate’ the risk of an unknown virus? You cannot actual… https://t.co/r8dhh1N0hV

Posted April 23, 2020 Hibernated

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Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb

Paper with @DrCirillo "Tail Risk of Contagious Diseases" using Extreme Value Theory. Advice by non EVT-trained epidemiologists concerning COVID-19th tail risks is no different from advice by a carpenter concerning complex odds at roulette tables. https://t.co/ebulnmnimi https://t.co/FxQ5Jr9tJO — PolitiTweet.org

Posted April 23, 2020 Hibernated

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Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb

@emmevilla @DrCirillo @ClaudioBGreen1 @Mellino_U @kantor57 @CozzolinoSalvo @Corriere No, Mr Villa, you can get a simple definition by asking for it --particularly when one is discussing elusive notions that are elusive by dint of their properties. See the explicit definition in Chap 2 of https://t.co/5JCWy84VU3 — PolitiTweet.org

Posted April 23, 2020 Hibernated