Alex Roarty

@Alex_Roarty ↗

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Last Checked Jan. 29, 2023

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Tue Nov 01 19:56:47 +0000 2022

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Alex Roarty @Alex_Roarty

but the lesson would be the same in both, if the GOP actually wins all these toss-ups: Candidate quality can appear to matter over the summer and even into the fall. But eventually, the national environment wins out — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 1, 2022

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Alex Roarty @Alex_Roarty

2014 was different from 2022 in that the Dems hope for over-performing the national environment was rooted in incumbents w/strong reputations in very red states (Pryor, Landrieu, etc ...). In '22, it's more about weak GOP candidates in purple states (Oz, Walker, etc ...) — PolitiTweet.org

Final Cook Senate rankings in 2014: 9 races listed as toss-ups, R's won 8 https://t.co/wxzHWbtZ0b

Posted Nov. 1, 2022

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Alex Roarty @Alex_Roarty

@BenjySarlin Cotton was exhibit A of that! He voted against the Farm Bill and it prompted a whole round of speculation he was blowing a race he should easily win. And then, at least by the final vote tally, he did easily win. (tho there are GOPers who would tell you that race broke v v late) — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 1, 2022