David Gauke

@DavidGauke ↗

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Last Checked Feb. 28, 2020

Created

Wed Dec 11 06:30:46 +0000 2019

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David Gauke @DavidGauke

Given that the MRP polling probably underestimates independents (especially an incumbent), worth looking at the Conservative bottom of the range number and my top of the range number. A 40-39 split. Here’s what that looks like in a bar chart! https://t.co/x6CeVIZLLH — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Dec. 11, 2019

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David Gauke @DavidGauke

The YouGov MRP polling struggles to take into account local factors like independents. But, on central estimates, my vote share is more than Labour & Lib Dems combined. And if I get top end of the predicted range & the Tory gets the bottom of the range, there’s just 1% in it. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Dec. 11, 2019

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David Gauke @DavidGauke

So the message for South West Herts voters? No chance of Labour or Lib Dems winning here. No chance of electing an MP who will put Corbyn in Downing Street. But I’m still in with a chance if non-Tories vote tactically and Conservatives vote for the local & experienced candidate. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Dec. 11, 2019