Perry Bacon Jr.

@perrybaconjr ↗

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Last Checked Oct. 17, 2022

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Mon Aug 29 18:08:09 +0000 2022

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Perry Bacon Jr. @perrybaconjr

Obviously some people have turned 18 since 2020, some have died, some will vote in 2022 who didn't in 2020 even though they could have. But the core question, along with how many voters swing to the other party, is which party has the biggest drop-off from presidential voting. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 29, 2022

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Perry Bacon Jr. @perrybaconjr

About 110 million voted in 2018, 160 million in 2020. Would expect closer to the 2018 number in November. That makes one of the core challenges of polling this cycle (and every midterm on some level) figuring out which 120 million or so vote, and which 40 million don't. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 29, 2022

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Perry Bacon Jr. @perrybaconjr

And it's really hard to poll that. For example, it's very likely that the cohort of people who voted on the Kansas abortion question earlier this month is more pro-Biden than the state's full 2020 electorate. Many Trump voters stayed home, helping the pro-abortion rights side. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 29, 2022