Perry Bacon Jr.

@perrybaconjr ↗

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Last Checked Oct. 17, 2022

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Mon Aug 29 17:38:16 +0000 2022

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Perry Bacon Jr. @perrybaconjr

@HeerJeet I have not done a full analysis of every 2018 result, but not sure this is a Trump issue. Walker and DeSantis also did better than polls showed. https://t.co/Fp3WvTOcob and https://t.co/fqz8OzFAtA — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 29, 2022

Preceded By

Perry Bacon Jr. @perrybaconjr

My broader point is that A. We can trust the general trends--The electoral environment is much much better for Dems than in early July B. Don't think we can trust the absolute numbers much. The polls may be overstating Dem chances of winning, particularly in swing states. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 29, 2022

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Perry Bacon Jr. @perrybaconjr

About 110 million voted in 2018, 160 million in 2020. Would expect closer to the 2018 number in November. That makes one of the core challenges of polling this cycle (and every midterm on some level) figuring out which 120 million or so vote, and which 40 million don't. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 29, 2022