Paul Krugman

@paulkrugman ↗

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Last Checked July 9, 2021

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Sat May 22 15:54:28 +0000 2021

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Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Actually, forgot to include a really good example of a bad prediction that shouldn't damage a professional reputation. Irving Fisher said that stocks would remain high bc of productivity gains from Prohibition. Silly stuff — but he was a great economist nonetheless 7/ — PolitiTweet.org

Posted May 22, 2021

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Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

If, on the other hand, someone makes a bad prediction that does seem to stem from a model that is central to their reputation, that matters more. Milton Friedman's repeated forecasts of soaring inflation in the 1980s, bc the money supply was rising, are disturbing 6/ — PolitiTweet.org

Posted May 22, 2021

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Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Another question is whether people admit mistakes and learn from them. Lionel Robbins wrote an early book saying that the cure for the Great Depression was returning to the gold standard. He became a Keynesian — and that's to his credit! 8/ — PolitiTweet.org

Posted May 22, 2021