Paul Krugman

@paulkrugman ↗

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Last Checked July 9, 2021

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Sat May 22 15:52:23 +0000 2021

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Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

If, on the other hand, someone makes a bad prediction that does seem to stem from a model that is central to their reputation, that matters more. Milton Friedman's repeated forecasts of soaring inflation in the 1980s, bc the money supply was rising, are disturbing 6/ — PolitiTweet.org

Posted May 22, 2021

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Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Anyway, no perfect answer here. But I think that when someone is in error, there are a few questions you should ask. First, does it relate to their presumed core competence? if I made a bad prediction about the winner of a singing contest, so what? 5/ — PolitiTweet.org

Posted May 22, 2021

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Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Actually, forgot to include a really good example of a bad prediction that shouldn't damage a professional reputation. Irving Fisher said that stocks would remain high bc of productivity gains from Prohibition. Silly stuff — but he was a great economist nonetheless 7/ — PolitiTweet.org

Posted May 22, 2021