Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked March 16, 2019

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Thu Jun 08 21:43:09 +0000 2017

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

6. Based on a hyper-simple, "polls-only" model, a hung parliament should have been priced at more like 35%. https://t.co/WNzPRrU4e1 — PolitiTweet.org

Posted June 8, 2017 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

5. Mistake No. 2: Betting markets (i.e. the conventional wisdom) assigned only a 15% chance to a hung parliament *despite* these polls. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted June 8, 2017 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

7. More later *if* this result holds up, which it might not. UK exit polls (like US ones) have had a mix of great, good and bad years. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted June 8, 2017 Hibernated