Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Thu Jun 08 21:33:59 +0000 2017

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

3. Turnout models were actually NOT the cause of the 2015 miss (see below), but some pollsters tweaked them anyway. https://t.co/7Y8sy00umn — PolitiTweet.org

Posted June 8, 2017 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

2. First, *some* pollsters (though not all) overcompensated for their mistakes in 2015 by making ad-hoc adjustments to Labour/youth turnout. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted June 8, 2017 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

4. That said, the polling average might not wind up being THAT far off, and a few polls (YouGov, SurveyMonkey) may have done quite well. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted June 8, 2017 Hibernated