Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked March 16, 2019

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Mon May 08 16:00:36 +0000 2017

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

4. What if we run the model with all polls that had been *conducted* before Comey even if they hadn't been released? Clinton up 5.2 instead. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted May 8, 2017 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

3. FiveThirtyEight's model at 12:01 am on Oct. 28 (Comey letter day), based on *available* polls, had Clinton up 5.9 points. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted May 8, 2017 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

5. In other words, accounting for poll timing reduces the Comey effect by 0.7 points. But that would leave you with a 2 or 2.5-point effect… — PolitiTweet.org

Posted May 8, 2017 Hibernated