Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked March 16, 2019

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Tue Oct 25 13:50:30 +0000 2016

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@JustinWolfers: Other models were even more aggressive in August, though, especially as compared to 538 polls-plus & betting markets. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 25, 2016 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@JustinWolfers: You probably also know that most models in low-n environments are overfit and overconfident. We work hard to avoid that. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 25, 2016 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@JustinWolfers: "Discount early leads" (polls-plus) is probably a good assumption. Polls-only *deliberately does not make that assumption*. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 25, 2016 Hibernated