Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked March 16, 2019

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Tue Oct 25 13:41:26 +0000 2016

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@JustinWolfers: Our models (now-cast, polls-only, plus-plus) make progressively more complex assumptions. That's part of showing our work. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 25, 2016 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@JustinWolfers: Still lazy. But it's interesting that prediction markets have tracked 538 polls-plus *almost exactly* thru the campaign. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 25, 2016 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@JustinWolfers: You probably also know that most models in low-n environments are overfit and overconfident. We work hard to avoid that. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 25, 2016 Hibernated