Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked April 3, 2023

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Mon Mar 06 18:30:42 +0000 2023

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@Noahpinion IDK I think I'm looking more toward examples where the person purports to be authoritative, e.g. an academic study that makes big claims in the abstract, a blog post framed as an epic takedown, a 20-post Twitter THREAD more than a one-off reply. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted March 6, 2023

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@Noahpinion Do you ever update in a positive direction after hearing someone's argument, i.e. you're persuaded? If so, I'd argue it's necessarily the case that you also have to sometimes update negatively instead. Otherwise you'll just ping-ping around based on which argument you read last. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted March 6, 2023

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@Noahpinion OK let's say I have a low-confidence belief that YIMBYs are Good with P=60%. I see that Noah has written a blog saying YIMBYs are good, so I update to 70% because I generally trust your judgement. But then I read your post and it's full of logical errors. So I go down to 55%. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted March 6, 2023