Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Dec. 19, 2022

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Wed Nov 09 17:05:10 +0000 2022

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Getting to 218 is tougher than it looks for Democrats if races are uncorrelated (i.e. just a bunch of independent coin flips). However, they probably *are* correlated. If Democrats beat Upshot projections in California, it gets interesting, for instance. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 9, 2022

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

5 races where Ds currently lead but the Upshot Needle (as of 4AM last night) rated as tossup: CO-8 NM-2 NV-1 NV-3 WA-8 4 race where Rs currently lead but the Upshot Needle (as of 4AM last night) rated as tossup: CA-13 CA-22 CA-27 OR-5 Did this fast so may be errors/omissions. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 9, 2022

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Except this time the polls correctly showed Democrats having a relatitvely good midterm and came very close the correct margin in most key races and a lot of journalists didn't take them at face value and went with the vibes instead. — PolitiTweet.org

If polls keep being wrong or misleading, maybe journalists should stop lavishing 90% of their political coverage on… https://t.co/TrUF7tEctz

Posted Nov. 9, 2022