Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Nov. 15, 2022

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Mon Oct 24 17:09:01 +0000 2022

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

There was like this 10-day stretch where nearly every poll was a disaster for Democrats but for the past few days, it's been more of a mixed bag. Don't know what to make of it, "noise" is always a plausible explanation, but maybe the race has stabilized at a new equilibrium. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 24, 2022

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@joshtpm They do show correlations, especially in younger grades, and more detailed studies with better controls etc. have shown stronger correlations. https://t.co/l4NBhqaP9d https://t.co/8NaLbcMeQN — PolitiTweet.org

We should be very cautious in interpreting this — it's not causal — but we ran an exploratory correlation between N… https://t.co/BRlqJnjGlL

Posted Oct. 24, 2022

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@Crimealytics There are statistical tests you can conduct for it! Usually herding takes place at the very end of the race (i.e. the very last poll that people release). But, IDK, wouldn't be shocking if pollsters exhibited some degree of herding at earlier stages too. https://t.co/mIFXJyFxXs — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 24, 2022