Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Nov. 13, 2022

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Fri Oct 21 20:38:40 +0000 2022

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Minor change to our forecast interactive, which I'll point out to be meticulous: in the headline at the top of each race, we now refer to a race as a "dead heat" if the leading candidate has between a 50-54% chance of winning. Previously, the headline had called these "toss-ups". https://t.co/1DF04oZn2v — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 21, 2022

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@lymanstoneky IDK with COVID experts there seemed to be an inverse correlation between jerkiness and performance. I can think of some exceptions, but for the most part the people engaged in poor discourse norms also tended to be wrong a lot. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 21, 2022

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

That's because we've traditionally used "toss-up" to refer to a 50-59% chance, not 50-54%. And in fact, we still do use toss-up that way elsewhere on the interactive. So we've retired the nonstandard (per 538 style) use of toss-up. Not the most exciting news you'll read today. https://t.co/fXwqHCtgpA — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 21, 2022