Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Nov. 10, 2022

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Fri Oct 14 15:33:17 +0000 2022

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Some thoughts on the ways in which political betting markets are smart and dumb. In the weeds but some of you will like this column, I think. https://t.co/wT9z1zZONz — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 14, 2022

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

C'mon, folks. Polygraph evidence isn't very reliable in general and it's particularly inappropriate for a poker player! The skills you'd need to deceive a polygraph are very similar to the ones you'd need to avoid giving off tells in poker. — PolitiTweet.org

Robbi's polygraph showed that there was a less than 1/10th of 1 percent chance that she was being deceptive. https://t.co/FCFS5Gz2vd

Posted Oct. 14, 2022

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@VanessaKade The problem is that polygraphs are borderline junk science to begin. Even under ideal circumstances you'd given them little weight. But this ins't ideal. People can be trained to beat them with relatively little practice, certainly << than you'd get playing poker even for a year. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 14, 2022