Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Sept. 30, 2022

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Fri Aug 12 14:17:34 +0000 2022

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Our model thinks it *probably* won't hold, hence we have D House chances at 20% and not 50%. But it's worth taking the possibility seriously and the Dobbs decision still looks like an inflection point. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 12, 2022

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Recent polling and election results are consistent with a political environment that is a) politically neutral (i.e. generic ballot of ~0) and b) no GOP enthusiasm advantage. *If* that holds, the *House* is a toss-up, and Ds are very likely to hold the Senate and may gain seats. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 12, 2022

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@JADubin5 Yeah, the prior is that this should be a bad midterm for Democrats and it still gives some weight to that prior. Also a lot of the polling is still among registered and it thinks likely voters polling will be better for Rs. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 12, 2022