Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Feb. 23, 2022

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Mon Jan 17 15:40:43 +0000 2022

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@robbysoave @SeanTrende One nerdy protip is that set of Wordle solutions generally doesn't include plurals (e.g. DUCKS will never be the solution) so you probably don't want an 'S' in the 5th slot. STARE is probably better than RATES, for example. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Jan. 17, 2022

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

So, pick your hypothesis: 1) Party ID is very stable, so big shifts reflect nonresponse bias 2) Party ID is usually fairly stable, so a big shift like this is really bad for Ds 3) Party ID isn't that stable, so this doesn't tell us any more than e.g. shifts in Biden approval — PolitiTweet.org

Big shift in Party ID in 2021: GOP +7, DEM -7 https://t.co/11kePOv8D4 https://t.co/OsPsbAY5p5

Posted Jan. 17, 2022

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@conorsen It's really hard to know without panel data. It did seem clear in Virginia that there are a fair number of people who dislike Trump but will vote for a Youngkin-style Republican under certain conditions. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Jan. 17, 2022