Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Feb. 23, 2022

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Mon Jan 17 14:45:28 +0000 2022

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@SeanTrende Can we talk about how ADIEU is a terrible first guess? — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Jan. 17, 2022

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @fawfulfan: Okay, here's exactly how that would play out: Manchin immediately goes to the press revealing Biden is illegally using the D… — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Jan. 16, 2022 Retweet

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

So, pick your hypothesis: 1) Party ID is very stable, so big shifts reflect nonresponse bias 2) Party ID is usually fairly stable, so a big shift like this is really bad for Ds 3) Party ID isn't that stable, so this doesn't tell us any more than e.g. shifts in Biden approval — PolitiTweet.org

Big shift in Party ID in 2021: GOP +7, DEM -7 https://t.co/11kePOv8D4 https://t.co/OsPsbAY5p5

Posted Jan. 17, 2022