Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Aug. 8, 2021

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Thu Jul 22 21:21:32 +0000 2021

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@seeglazek @JamesSurowiecki I don't know how to make sense of it all but I *don't* think the way to do it is by eyeballing the data or by relying on anecdotes from one's non-heterogeneous peers. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 22, 2021

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@seeglazek @JamesSurowiecki Yeah but there are other studies including some in peer reviewed journals that just came out today and show much higher efficiency. This feels a bit like polling analysis where people prefer the data points that suit their priors. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 22, 2021

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@seeglazek @JamesSurowiecki I mean I tend to agree that the 90%+ efficacy numbers seem unlikely vs Delta. But if you look at the consensus it would seem to suggest ~80% for 2 doses of mRNA which is sort of my working assumption at the point. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 22, 2021