Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked July 31, 2021

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Tue Jun 29 20:11:12 +0000 2021

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Also some questions about whether there are some uncounted election day votes and/or a lot of provisional votes in the Bronx, which would potentially help Adams. https://t.co/LK7FxmHAQ5 — PolitiTweet.org

If turnout in the Bronx was indeed this low vs. past years (we'll see as BOE count moves forward), it could end up… https://t.co/BCE0TtBUrP

Posted June 29, 2021

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Also, the distribution of absentee ballots seems to correlate more with strong Garcia precincts than strong Wiley precincts. https://t.co/oNzjJWoAzL — PolitiTweet.org

Garcia will likely make gains when absentee ballots are counted. Assembly Districts where Garcia's vote share is h… https://t.co/tayndu3Jl4

Posted June 29, 2021

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@conorsen My polling-infused gut is something like * 75% chance Garcia stays ahead of Wiley in the penultimate round * 55% chance Garcia overtakes Adams if she does make the final 2 * 25% chance Wiley overtakes Adams if she makes the final 2 In that case, you'd rather be Adams. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted June 29, 2021