Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked July 31, 2021

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Tue Jun 29 19:57:19 +0000 2021

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Why? Polls show more Wiley voters had Garcia as their 2nd choice than the other way around. Which makes sense: some Garcia voters might prefer Adams to Wiley, who like Garcia is experienced & anti-"defund". Thus, Wiley might not pick up as much ground vs Adams as Garcia did. https://t.co/I8XUmc32oK — PolitiTweet.org

Posted June 29, 2021

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Another question: Given that Garcia barely edged out Wiley in the penultimate round before nearly catching Adams, does that mean Wiley has a path *too* once absentees are added? My guess is Wiley has a path, but it's pretty unlikely one (see next tweet). https://t.co/oA8N65lSjB — PolitiTweet.org

Posted June 29, 2021

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Also, the distribution of absentee ballots seems to correlate more with strong Garcia precincts than strong Wiley precincts. https://t.co/oNzjJWoAzL — PolitiTweet.org

Garcia will likely make gains when absentee ballots are counted. Assembly Districts where Garcia's vote share is h… https://t.co/tayndu3Jl4

Posted June 29, 2021