Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked April 29, 2021

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Tue Apr 13 15:33:56 +0000 2021

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@ashishkjha I do 100% agree though that I should have used a lower IFR given that we've done a good job of vaccinating older/vulnerable people. (Although, I'd note that figures into a lot of cost-benefit calculations and not just this one.) — PolitiTweet.org

Posted April 13, 2021

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@ashishkjha This is tricky because if you pause for 3 days and then get the J&J dose anyway, you bear the same risk of clots but do take the small but nontrivial risk of 3 days of exposure to COVID. I was assuming a longer pause where people ultimately wind up taking a different vaccine. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted April 13, 2021

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@ashishkjha If it's for a few days, it mostly comes down to the effects on vaccine hesitancy, which I tend to infer are strongly downside-weighted, although weren't part of the calculation I was going for in that thread. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted April 13, 2021