Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Feb. 14, 2021

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Mon Jan 25 13:32:45 +0000 2021

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@pbump Yeah, although if anything it understates how important it is that we're going into this period with falling rather than rising cases. The graph on the right is a LOT better. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Jan. 25, 2021

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

The CDC's forecasting agrees with this. The graph on the right shows what happens if we start out with an Rt of ~0.9 and then start to vaccinate people. The new strain slows down progress a bit and makes it take longer to get to ~0, but not so bad overall. https://t.co/in9afqxb1I https://t.co/hogvcIg0wt — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Jan. 25, 2021

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

p.s. Is the US data starting to show any impact from vaccines? I doubt that. Per Israeli data, vaccines take ~2+ weeks to become substantially effective and then there are the usual lags beyond that (e.g. between development of symptoms and test results showing up in the data). — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Jan. 25, 2021