Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Jan. 28, 2021

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Wed Jan 06 12:55:11 +0000 2021

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Basically the polls were quite good in Trump-era elections when Trump himself wasn't on the ballot (2018 midterms, Georgia 2021, Alabama 2017, 2017 Gov. races) and quite poor in the elections where he was (Nov. 2016, Nov. 2020). — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Jan. 6, 2021

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@MileHighBrendan I'm thinking more about what happens if you run the actuarial tables on a bunch of age 70+ senators, several of whom are in states with Republican governors or which state law requires would leave the seat vacant until a special election. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Jan. 6, 2021

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Maybe that it was a quirk but it increases the likelihood of certain theories of polling error relative to others, especially those centered around Trump turning out low-propensity voters that are hard to capture in polls. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Jan. 6, 2021