Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Jan. 5, 2021

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Thu Dec 17 20:48:45 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

If you had to pick one or the other, the PLAYER-BASED projections will generally be stronger. Even though basketball is a team sport, you just lose too much accuracy if your projections don't immediately account for, say, James Harden getting traded (if he gets traded) 4/ — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Dec. 17, 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Alternatively, PLAYER-BASED projections work by summing up the projections for individual players, e.g. by using our RAPTOR ratings. That is, team performance is assumed to be ~equal to the sum of the parts. This has the opposite set of strengths and weaknesses. 3/ — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Dec. 17, 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

What's really best, though, *especially* for updating your ratings as the season goes along, is some sort of hybrid between TEAM-BASED and PLAYER-BASED. Whereas what we had last year was sort of on the extreme end of PLAYER-BASED with little/no team component. 5/ — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Dec. 17, 2020