Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Jan. 5, 2021

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Thu Dec 17 20:48:45 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

In the past, we've really used two ways to project NBA games. One is TEAM-BASED solely using team performance, e.g. via Elo ratings. Advantage: captures team "intangibles" (coaching, cohesion, recent form) Big disadvantage: doesn't account for player personnel changes. 2/ — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Dec. 17, 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

As @Neil_Paine talks about here, we also made a couple of important changes to our NBA projections this year. I'm going to simplify this a bit, but basically it comes down to PLAYER-BASED projections vs. TEAM-BASED projections. LONG DORKY THREAD 1/ https://t.co/8n1tUWeg0T — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Dec. 17, 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Alternatively, PLAYER-BASED projections work by summing up the projections for individual players, e.g. by using our RAPTOR ratings. That is, team performance is assumed to be ~equal to the sum of the parts. This has the opposite set of strengths and weaknesses. 3/ — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Dec. 17, 2020