Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Aug. 31, 2021

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Mon Nov 02 12:57:23 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

So... this is a special morning for our forecast in that there's now no more time until the election. (The model treats Election Day and Election Eve as equivalent to one another.) This has a couple of minor effects. https://t.co/aEBz22RXEs — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 2, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

It is also a bit self-serving in that if you have a poll with Trump +1 in PA when the consensus has it Biden +5, "voter fraud" is a way to excuse why your poll was wrong if Biden wins. — PolitiTweet.org

there are no credible accusations of mass voter fraud. trafalgar's chief pollster just told hannity that trump wil… https://t.co/jmAv28jppV

Posted Nov. 2, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

1. The forecast is now totally polls-based; there's no longer any prior for economics/incumbency. The weight assigned to this prior had been declining anyway so that it was close to zero, but now it's actually zero. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 2, 2020 Hibernated