Tweet by @NateSilver538

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

See, this is why you can't infer much about how early voting from party alone. In Florida, Ds currently have only a 2-point edge (D 40/R 38/I 22) in early + absentee voting. But if the partisan splits are as below, it would translate to Biden being ahead 56-39 with those voters. — PolitiTweet.org

Early vote statistics have been plentiful this cycle. As always, there's some uncertainty in interpretation. Some t… https://t.co/QmKlRKw0LY

Posted Oct. 30, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I say "obvious-ish" because if it weren't for 2016, we'd probably be spending a lot more time reminding people that (i) the tipping point state is quite a bit closer than national polls and (ii) systematic polling errors can occur. But everybody knows that stuff because of 2016. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 30, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

We've now updated our presidential turnout estimates to account for early voting data. Here's how it works (it's pretty straightforward): in states where a high percentage of people have already voted relative to our model's initial estimate, we revise the estimate upward. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 30, 2020 Hibernated