Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Aug. 16, 2021

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Wed Oct 28 19:23:11 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Given Biden's strong polling in Iowa lately I suspect that our model is lowballing him in NE-2, in fact. Getting another nonpartisan poll there before the election would be one of the more helpful things right now. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 28, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Losing PA but winning AZ (and winning back MI/WI) would get Biden to 269 electoral votes, e.g. an Electoral College tie, so he'd also have to win either NE-2, ME-2 or Iowa. He's become a pretty clear favorite in NE-2 while the other two are tossups. https://t.co/6n48auyWTs — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 28, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@jtlevy I mean, it's still something of a tightrope: 1) Biden's a reasonably heavy favorite in PA. 2) Some of the time that he loses PA, there's a catastrophic polling error and he loses most other swing states too. 3) Of the times he loses PA but wins AZ, he usually wins NE-2. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 28, 2020 Hibernated