Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Aug. 16, 2021

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Wed Oct 28 14:50:40 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Early voting data can maaaayyybee give you some hints at *turnout*, but i) it's by party registration, not party ID ii) there's usually not a great way to tell how much the early vote is cannibalizing the late vote iii) this is a persuasion election not a turnout one — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 28, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

More broadly: polls suggest Biden's gains relative to Clinton are mostly about persuasion, i.e. flipping some Obama-Trump voters and Johnson/3rd party voters that she didn't get. They don't tend to suggest a more D electorate than in 2016 by party ID (maybe a bit less, in fact). — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 28, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Despite that, surface readings of early/mail voting data would mostly seem to be good for Democrats. Maybe NV is something of an exception, and you could argue about FL. But that makes sense too. NV/FL have maybe Biden's worst swing states (as compared to 2016) in the polls. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 28, 2020 Hibernated Just a Typo