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Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Aug. 16, 2021

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Wed Oct 28 14:32:38 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @micahcohen: 🚨🚨🚨 OMG BIDEN +17 IN WISCONSIN!?!?!?!? 🚨🚨🚨 This is how polling works. You conduct the poll, make sure your methods are sou… — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 28, 2020 Retweet Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

A 5-point swing toward Biden would put him at +4. Instead, polls have him at +2, meaning that they expect the D/R/I breakdown to be a bit worse for Democrats than 2016. Still, Biden (narrowly) leads based on greater support from indies and crossover R's than Clinton got. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 28, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

More broadly: polls suggest Biden's gains relative to Clinton are mostly about persuasion, i.e. flipping some Obama-Trump voters and Johnson/3rd party voters that she didn't get. They don't tend to suggest a more D electorate than in 2016 by party ID (maybe a bit less, in fact). — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 28, 2020 Hibernated

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