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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Similarly, in FL, polls have Biden winning indies by 6 points after Clinton lost them by 4 in '16. They also show Biden getting 9% of the R vote while Trump gets 7% of Ds. That equals a ~5-point swing to Biden vs. 2016 holding the partisan composition of the electorate constant. — PolitiTweet.org

So if you had the same partisan turnout split as in 2016 in Nevada but with this year's partisan breakdown of the v… https://t.co/bMPK1jIVGe

Posted Oct. 28, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Remember, the question is not merely "can you learn anything from early voting data?" but rather "can you learn anything that you *can't* glean from polls?". Usually, the story from the polls checks out if you look at the data more carefully. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 28, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

A 5-point swing toward Biden would put him at +4. Instead, polls have him at +2, meaning that they expect the D/R/I breakdown to be a bit worse for Democrats than 2016. Still, Biden (narrowly) leads based on greater support from indies and crossover R's than Clinton got. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 28, 2020 Hibernated