Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Aug. 16, 2021

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Wed Oct 28 13:48:43 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

So if you had the same partisan turnout split as in 2016 in Nevada but with this year's partisan breakdown of the vote, Biden would win by ~8 points not ~2 like Clinton. Probably though the split will be a bit worse for Democrats which is why polls have him up ~6 instead. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 28, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

In many state/national polls, Biden also gets a slightly higher share of Republicans than Trump does of Democrats. In Nevada polls, for instance, Trump gets 6% of Democrats but Biden gets 9% of Republicans. That's amounts to about a 2 point swing to Biden vs. 2016. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 28, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Remember, the question is not merely "can you learn anything from early voting data?" but rather "can you learn anything that you *can't* glean from polls?". Usually, the story from the polls checks out if you look at the data more carefully. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 28, 2020 Hibernated