Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked July 25, 2021

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Tue Oct 20 20:13:46 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Biden's gain in swing state polls has been considerably more modest than his gain in national polls. https://t.co/ZN7MRZqccr — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 20, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Could that have an impact in a close election? Sure, in a *very* close election. But it's also not clear that late-arriving mail ballots would be especially Democratic given that Ds are sending in their ballots sooner than Republicans. See here for more: https://t.co/6SzPVrbkRG — PolitiTweet.org

So far, returned mail ballots are D +31 (not a surprise given what polls show) whereas the set of mail ballots that… https://t.co/xucUHvAcfv

Posted Oct. 20, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

It's hard to know what to make of this, although I'd keep in mind that Biden's state polls were probably a little better for him than national polls pre-debate. So national polls have gone from 7 to 10 while state polls have gone from implying an 8-point lead to 9 points instead. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 20, 2020 Hibernated