Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked July 25, 2021

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Tue Oct 20 16:50:58 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

This seems important to keep in mind when considering the impact of court rulings over when ballots arrive. Only about 1% of mail ballots arrived after Election Day in the PA primaries. https://t.co/se9WHVujpd https://t.co/bOwwWyZU0p — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 20, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

It's more of a sliding scale than a fixed time horizon, where our algorithm is trying to manage a trade-off between quality and recency. But you also need to account for house effects; the polls in the RCP average in PA are a really friendly set for Trump. https://t.co/wxRaq7bDjI — PolitiTweet.org

@NateSilver538 How far back is your time horizon? Do more recent polls get weighted higher in such an average?

Posted Oct. 20, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Could that have an impact in a close election? Sure, in a *very* close election. But it's also not clear that late-arriving mail ballots would be especially Democratic given that Ds are sending in their ballots sooner than Republicans. See here for more: https://t.co/6SzPVrbkRG — PolitiTweet.org

So far, returned mail ballots are D +31 (not a surprise given what polls show) whereas the set of mail ballots that… https://t.co/xucUHvAcfv

Posted Oct. 20, 2020 Hibernated