Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked June 17, 2021

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Tue Oct 13 22:54:15 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Our model assumes that turnout is a bit harder to predict because of the rise of mail voting, and that leads to some additional potential for polling error. — PolitiTweet.org

Question for wise psephologists (@SeanTrende, @TimAlberta @NateSilver538 Is it possible that we will see such an e… https://t.co/7r9BIshX6X

Posted Oct. 13, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

And with Biden's Arizona polling being a bit lackluster lately, NC has really moved into a three-way tie with FL and AZ for what is Biden's first line of defense if one of the Midwestern battlegrounds falls through. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 13, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

In some ways, though, higher turnout should make polling easier. In a hypothetical country where everyone voted, you wouldn't need to worry about a likely voter model. And indeed, polls show very little difference between registered and likely voters this year. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 13, 2020 Hibernated