Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked June 17, 2021

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Tue Oct 13 17:28:42 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Our North Carolina Senate forecast has really been quite stable, with Cunningham having about a 2 in 3 chance of victory. Note that our model actually *does* take into account his scandal in our priors for the race, it's just outweighed by the polling. https://t.co/l14zlxUwrE https://t.co/xd2VTfN9Tt — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 13, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

As you can see in the article above, while there were changes in both directions, on balance the pre-pandemic trend in 2018-2019 was toward making it easier for people to vote. And post-pandemic, all swing states but TX now have no-excuse absentee voting. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 13, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

In general, polling in Senate races tends to be pretty stable, and our forecasts reflect that. Not like a presidential race where voters are constantly consuming new information (although the presidential race has been fairly stable this year, too). — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 13, 2020 Hibernated